Earlier, I described how the officials made the most promising business housing in fraudulent pyramid – in full accordance with their short-term interests and to the detriment of long-term interests of builders and the Russians.
Why did the crisis have not fallen real estate prices, as happened in other countries?
Prices fell to the ground for construction materials. And the builders, I know exactly were willing to reduce prices on new square footage, and much (but after that prices would fall and the secondary property). But they are trapped in the rules and relationships that are built for them, officials said.
First, if prices fall more than 20% of the old interest holders who bought before 2008 square meters of luxury, are beginning to demand the money back and agree with the pay agreed in the contract fee (usually it was 10% in recent years to 20% ). Incentive is obvious: take the money and buy another company or even in the same the same squares, but at a cheaper price. Cases where the interest-holders this could, in fact, extremely rare, but one can imagine that would start with the real prices fall 40-50 per cent – the phenomenon would become more widespread and organized.
Secondly, the experience of neighboring Ukraine (where many Russian companies are also working) shows: the fall in prices does not lead to an increase in purchases – buyers are still sitting and waiting for prices to fall even more! And all attempts to convince them that the “bottom” is reached, no success. And the price eventually falls again and again, inspired by the buyers are waiting for further falls. Vendors secondary housing is not want to sell cheap, mass is removed from the sale of their apartments and prefer to rent. It’s a bit slow decline, but then due to supply growth drops rents. Again, prices are falling. That is quite a market mechanism.
In such a stepwise fall behind Russia after the crisis on Ukraine for about a year, but then went the other way. Because, in the third, with falling prices falling cost of mortgages – it is not profitable, simply disastrous for the banks. And our banks have issued mortgages much larger than the Ukrainian. And the financial capacity to keep prices from falling in our banks and the Russian budget is much more than in Ukraine. As was the case, it is known: a temporary exemption from paying the builders for land, construction of budget accommodation for soldiers, orphans, veterans of the 65 th anniversary, accommodated in dilapidated housing and the like. This is a noble cause, and supported builders afloat in difficult times, but … Construction on the money budget quite so drastically reduced the quality of housing. Because of budget for this freebie, and what claims can be a freebie? Do not look a gift horse in the mouth! And paying a Russian who buys a square meter in the same house for their money or a mortgage, buy today for the same money more frank bullshit. That is, the ratio of price-quality “value of the property as a result of the crisis even increased.
It is obvious that all this state aid only postponed for a while market mechanisms, is uniquely designed to adjust downward. Experts in the analysis of the market sale of real estate usually operate by supply-demand, completely ignoring the fact that this product nebezalternativny. An alternative is to hire purchase, and the growth rates in recent years means that many potential buyers are in no hurry to buy, and in anticipation of falling prices prefer to rent.
Prices will fall, when they sold those houses in which a high proportion of those who bought the square meters more expensive. I remember a novel by A. Tolstoy “Peter I”, which describes the bad habit of Russian merchants – not to sell fresh goods until sold rotten, stale (and during this time will rot and the goods that today, fresh!).
At one time I offered a friend builders two options out of the impasse – what came of it, which way to go, builders and officials in charge this market, will talk about later …